Padres Daily: Arraez redux; Estrada's evolution; A.J.'s bargains; Machado's smoothness; a Petco problem (2024)

Good morning,

It is rare we begin consecutive newsletters with the same topic.

But, then, Luis Arraez is a rarity.

You can read my game story (here) from yesterday’s 6-4 victory over the Reds, which highlighted the Padres’ difficult and rewarding road trip, as well as the contributions of Arraez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada and others.

We’ll dig deeper into some of that later. Especially Estrada. He is a revelation.

Let’s talk about Arraez again now, because we can hardly talk about him enough.

“He’s one of the best hitters I’ve ever seen play in the game of baseball,” Tatis said yesterday.

Arraez is at least one of the best at hitting a baseball in the game at this time.

What he did yesterday was a lot like what he did the day before. And that is one of the special things about the Padres’ new lead-off hitter — that he hits and hits and hits and hits and no one really knows how he does it.

“Magician” and “wizard” are the words you hear most from his teammates and coaches. Mike Shildt used a different word after yesterday’s game.

“He’s a genius, man,” Shildt said. “You just can see he’s got this great talent that’s coupled with high baseball IQ with great focus, and then a great approach and then great physical hand-eye talent. It’s just like a perfect blend of a guy that knows what he’s doing with the bat in his hand.”

I wrote (here) at the end of Arraez’s first week with the Padres about how he surveys the field before at-bats to see where fielders are (and aren’t). When he did that in the 10th inning yesterday, he felt he knew where he needed to put the ball.

And, with great intent, he very much not on purpose became just the fifth Padres player to ever have four hits in back-to-back games.

The intention was just to make sure his bunt down the first base line got Luis Campusano from second to third in the 10th inning. But when his slow roller could not be cleanly fielded by Reds pitcher Sam Moll, Arraez had a single.

“I just go there and do my job,” said Arraez, who was acquired in a May 4 trade with the Marlins. “And then I did it. I just bunted. I got my fourth (hit), but I just wanted to move the runner.”

Tatis followed with a double that moved Arraez to third, and Arraez scored on Jake Cronenworth’s sacrifice fly.

“He dissected everything that was out in the field,” Shildt said, “and couldn’t have rolled it out much better.”

Arraez was 4-for-5 each of the past two games, went 10-for-14 during the three-game series against the Reds, is 21-for-38 during a streak in which he has multiple hits in eight straight games and is batting .419 (31-for-74) in 17 games (16 starts) with the Padres.

The 2023 National League batting champion (with the Marlins) and 2022 American League batting champion (with the Twins) has moved up to second in the National League (and MLB) with a .339 average this season.

Should he get multiple hits tonight against the Yankees, he will tie Gary Sheffield’s Padres record for consecutive multi-hit games. He has also reached base in 28 consecutive games, the longest such streak of his career and the longest in MLB this season.

Arraez reiterated after yesterday’s game a sentiment shared in yesterday’s newsletter, which detailed how he has improved the potency of the Padres offense.

“I just work hard, and I just come in here and play hard every day,” he said. “I enjoy this game. This game is hard. We have to enjoy the game. I try to do my little things and hit the ball every time like I do. If I hit the ball like that, we will score a lot of runs.”

Good pick-ups

We talk a lot about how important — and, so far, disappointing — the Padres’ “Big Three” has been.

That is because they are important, and they have been disappointing.

And it is true that how Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Tatis do this season (and beyond) will go a long way in determining how successful the Padres are and the legacy of President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller.

But let’s pause for a second to appreciate how Preller and his lieutenants have rounded out the roster with bargain buys.

• Any such discussion begins with Jurickson Profar, who was signed in February to a deal that will pay him $1 million (plus a potential $1.5 million more in playing-time incentives). Profar yesterday extended his hitting streak to 12 games, one shy of his career high, and is tied for fourth in the major leagues with a .337 batting average and ranks second with a .431 on-base percentage.
  
• Recently, it has become apparent the Padres found something the Cubs overlooked in Estrada, a 25-year-old right-hander who was placed on waivers in November and picked up by the Padres. Estrada has emerged as one of the Padres’ high-leverage options. In his past three appearances (four innings), he has allowed one hit and struck out 10 while picking up a save, a hold and a win. He has a league-minimum salary ($740,000) but will actually make slightly more than $620,000 after beginning the season in Triple-A.
  
• The Padres signed 36-year-old infielder Donovan Solano to a minor-league contract in April and called him up earlier this month. At just more than $790,000 (the prorated portion of his $1 million contract), he has so far looked like he can still provide great value as a right-handed bat off the bench and occasional starter at third base and designated hitter. He is 8-for-23 (.348) with two walks in nine games (six starts).
  
• Just last week, the Padres signed left-handed hitter David Peralta, another 36-year-old, to a minor-league deal. When Bogaerts was placed on the injured list Wednesday, Perlata was called up. He has started in the outfield both games he has been with the team, going 0-for-2 with an RBI on Wednesday and 3-for-4 yesterday. Peralta is due about $695,000 (the prorated portion of his $1 million salary) plus up to $1 million in playing-time bonuses.
  
• The Padres also seem to have found a contributor in Rule 5 draft pick Stephen Kolek, a right-hander who is working mostly low-leverage innings. He is filling this crucial relief role for the league minimum (plus the $100,000 the Padres had to send to the Mariners for selecting him).

Split difference

The Padres had nothing to lose and a lot to gain by claiming Estrada off waivers in November. These types of moves lead to no real gain more often than not.

Estrada appears to be one that is working out.

He impressed the Padres enough in spring training to make the roster for the season-opening series in Korea. But he was optioned after that and not recalled until April 26. He was mostly used in games in which the Padres trailed for a time before getting a few higher-leverage opportunities as he continued to throw strikes and impress with his repertoire.

I wrote in last Saturday’s newsletter about the quality of Estrada’s stuff the day after he earned his first career save.

Yesterday, he worked the eighth and ninth innings in a tie game, striking out the final five batters he faced and getting the win when the Padres went ahead in the 10th.

The Padres saw promise in the right-hander, who had just turned 25 on Nov. 1 and possessed a live fastball he just couldn’t quite command.

What they didn’t know was that Estrada had spent time in Arizona working on a splitter with Cubs pitching coordinator Tony Cougoule last year and continued to refine the pitch throughout the offseason.

Before Estrada threw for the first time in the bullpen in front of Ruben Niebla, the Padres pitching coach asked him what pitches he threw.

Estrada told him about the splitter, and Niebla asked to see it.

“As soon as I saw it,” recalled Niebla, “I said, ‘Holy (expletive). That’s got to be an option.’”

In 10⅔ innings for the Cubs in 2023, Estrada had 13 strikeouts and 12 walks and allowed 12 hits. He was throwing his fastball 84 percent of the time with his slider as close to his only other offering.

Now he uses his fastball 54 percent of the time with the splitter and slider about even rest of the time. In his 13⅔ innings for the Padres this season, he has 20 strikeouts and four walks and has given up five hits.

“The fastball is the best pitch,” Niebla said, “with the complement of the other two.”

Spencer Steer’s single in the eighth inning was the first-ever hit off the splitter. Batters are now 1-for-13 with nine strikeouts in at-bats ending on the pitch. Batters are missing on 60 percent of their swings against the pitch, which Estrada grips between his middle and ring finger with the latter on top of a seam.

Nothing doing

Machado is back at third base, playing there nine of the past 11 games and doing Machado types of things on the regular.

On this road trip, we saw the diving stop and the backhand grab while crossing the foul line and making a cross-body throw, two plays he has practically trademarked.

The play he made yesterday to prevent a run, though, was perhaps the most quintessential Machado play there could be.

With one out in the fifth inning, Elly De La Cruz was on third base after hitting a double and stealing his 31st base of the season. Machado was playing at regular depth on the dirt, actually shifted over toward second so that De La Cruz had a healthy lead of about 10 feet.

Jeimer Candelario sent a check-swing grounder between Machado and the bag that Machado backhanded and, as fast as a blink, transferred the ball to his throwing hand and while still on the run fired a strike to catcher Kyle Higashioka that was in time to get De La Cruz.

As usual, Machado made it look no more difficult than yawning.

“It’s the smoothness, it’s the ease of it,” Shildt said. “But it’s also the situation. A high percentage of guys understandably field that ball, the infield is back, De La Cruz is running, and get the out (at first). And he’s just, nice and easy, throws it home. Made it look easy. Clearly, it’s not. But high baseball IQ play.”

The new Zone, same as the …

Cronenworth volunteered to play second base, and the Padres took him up on it.

As expected, Cronenworth yesterday slid over from first base to play second for the first time this season. Arraez, who had mostly served as the Padres’ designated hitter and played second base the previous three games, played first base.

“I’ve played there before,” said Cronenworth, who was the Padres’ primary second baseman in 2021 and ‘22. “I’m comfortable over there.”

The alignment for yesterday’s game figures to be the most common way the Padres cover second base in Bogaerts’ absence the next few months due to a fractured left shoulder suffered Monday.

“We will continue to look at it,” Shildt said. “But today, that was the best lineup we could put out there.”

Home sweet home

The Padres went 5-2 on the trip that concluded yesterday and are 17-11 away from Petco Park this season.

They are 10-15 at their home ballpark, where they were last seen slinking away after being swept by the Rockies, who have gone 1-5 since then and have the second-worst record in MLB.

Here is how the Padres are faring at Petco Park versus every other venue they have played in this season.

(baseball-reference; U-T research)

Those are actually not all that different from their numbers at Petco Park when compared with this point in the past three seasons.

First 25 games in 2023: .225/.313/.369

First 25 games in 2022: .222/.307/.340

First 25 games in 2021: .228/.323/.347

Now, almost inexplicably, the Padres are 3-12 in night games at home this year. They are also 1-3 in their City Connect uniforms, which they will wear tonight.

“I think it’s too early for that,” Tatis said of talking about the team’s Petco Park struggles. “It’s not like we have played the worst games over there. Obviously Colorado got out there and beat the (expletive) out of us, but it’s baseball. We’ll figure it out.”

Tidbits

• The Padres had 12 hits yesterday. They have had 10 or more hits in six of their past nine games and are batting .285 in that span. Just three teams have a higher batting average since May 14.
  
• Machado yesterday hit his fifth double in his past five games. He had five doubles in his first 43 games this season.
  
• Tatis did not start in right field for the first time this season. Peralta, who started in left field on Wednesday, started in right yesterday while Tatis served as DH.
  
• The Padres are 2-0 in extra innings this season. They lost their first 12 extra-inning games in 2023 before winning their final two.
  
• Ha-Seong Kim stole second and third base in the sixth inning and has five steals in his past five games. His 13 steals this season are tied for third in the National League. He also was picked off second base in the ninth inning.

All right, that’s it for me.

Talk to you tomorrow after the opener of the Yankees series.